The Ukrainian army says that it is now launching serious counterattacks against Russian forces in an effort to retake lost territory and give Kiev some breathing room. Ukraine has announced two major counteroffensives in recent days, one aimed at the southern city of Kherson (currently in Russian hands) and the other meant to push the Russians out of important suburbs around the capital and thwart encirclement attempts.
Ukrainian counterattacks see some success
The counteroffensive from Nikolaev was apparently somewhat successful, though details are very hard to come by. Silence from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on the subject may be a bad sign.
The neoconservative leaning Institute for the Study of War claimed, based on Ukrainian sources, that the counterattack was a major Ukrainian success that caught the Russians off guard and routed them.
Kherson is still firmly under Russian control, so talk of a major success is somewhat premature. Pro-Russian sources indicated a minor setback in the region, but reporting from both sides is sparse.
Russian forces positioning to take Nikolaev may have found themselves overstretched and fallen back towards Kherson when the Ukrainian offensive began.
Pulling back to consolidate and let artillery and air strikes wear down the attacking force would make good military sense in this situation, so the Ukrainians will need to present real evidence of gains before the counteroffensive can be described as a major success.
On a smaller scale, the attack likely succeeded in driving the Russians back temporarily and forcing them to reorganize before resuming their advance. This would be a significant and believable victory, but Kiev has a taste for hyperbole that requires a grander scale for its announcements.
Extent of success remains unclear
Near the capital, the Ukrainians have reportedly taken back the suburb of Makariv, a strategically important town west of Kiev.
These are isolated counterattacks but they may indicate that Kiev is already determined to go on the offensive against the Russians on a large scale, something that will be necessary for Ukraine to win the war.
Retaking towns and villages is good for morale and will delay Russian advances, but it remains difficult to assess the value of launching counterattacks at this stage of the war.
Kiev may lack the ability to coordinate larger offensives with forces in different parts of the country; Ukrainian troops have generally been limited to holding static defenses and waiting for the Russians.
Overeager local attacks risk letting Ukrainian forces be drawn out into open country where Russian firepower is more dominant.
These counterattacks could be decisive blows or they could be inconsequential maneuvers, but it won’t be possible to fully assess which they are until the war is over.