In a recent poll, President Trump has just taken the lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in his home state of Florida, which he won by only 1.2% of the vote in 2016.
In a new NBC News/Marist poll, President Trump is beating Democratic nominee Joe Biden among registered voters, 48% to 47%. The poll also shows that Trump is leading in regards to the question of who would be better suited to handle the economy.
Further, the poll shows Trump leading in Florida among men (58% to 38%), white voters (56% to 41%), and whites without college degrees (63% to 35%).
Biden still has the lead in Florida among black likely voters (83% to 11%), women (57% to 40%), and independents (51% to 40%).
Hispanic Support for Trump
The increase in President Trump’s poll numbers may also be due to an increase in support from Latino voters.
A recent NBC News poll among Hispanic voters shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 46%:
Florida @NBCNews Poll Among Hispanic Voters:
Trump 50% (+15 vs 2016 exit polls)
Biden 46% (-16) https://t.co/ZRnS8hOkEE
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 8, 2020
“If you’re the Biden campaign, looking at these numbers, I think there’s reason for pause. If Biden under-performs in what should be one of his strongest counties — and is certainly the largest county for Democratic votes in the state of Florida — it might imperil his chances of winning Florida unless there is a massive white voter exodus from Trump in other parts of the state,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based pollster and Democratic strategist.
The increased support from Latino voters is due in large part to Cuban Americans, who in a recent poll supported Trump over Biden by a crushing 38 points. This is a huge swing in favor of the Republican party, as this voting bloc was almost evenly split between Mitt Romney and former President Obama just eight years ago.
President Trump is even beginning to close the gap in Miami-Dade County, where Hillary Clinton beat him by 30 points in 2016. Trump does not need to win Miami-Dade to win Florida, but he does need to close the gap in order to offset potential losses in other areas. The new poll finds him trailing Biden by 17 points, far less than his 2016 loss.
As President Trump has been increasing his outreach to Latino voters in Florida, Joe Biden’s campaign has begun to scramble to catch up. The president has outspent Biden by around $4 million on television ads in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, with many of his ads running in Spanish.
“They’re not hearing enough from the Biden campaign, and I think the Biden camp has seen that and beefed up their programming the last two weeks to head into the general. I’m sure they’ve obviously identified that’s a problem and they need to correct that quickly,” said Ricky Junquera, a state House candidate and vice chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party.
Josh Kraushaar, a columnist at National Journal, shared a Miami Herald article on Twitter which showed President Trump’s increased support from Hispanics in the Miami-Dade area:
“Two-thirds of all respondents [in Miami-Dade, Florida] who chose to conduct their interviews in Spanish support Trump” https://t.co/f1mmAzZ9WK
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) September 8, 2020