When Russia announced that it would be withdrawing troops from around Kiev in a sign of good faith during negotiations in Istanbul, NATO leaders warned that the Russians were not giving up on their ambitions in Ukraine. Instead, Western officials claimed that there would be a major redeployment and concentration of forces to the country’s southeast for a new offensive. Now they say that the Russians are almost ready to begin what will likely be the decisive battle of the war.
NATO claims new offensive will begin soon
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg claims that Russia has adjusted its strategy after failing to force a Ukrainian collapse in the first days of the war and is now preparing for a lengthy conflict.
The Donbass region continues to be Russia’s chief objective, and not just because Vladimir Putin thinks of it as rightfully part of the Russian Federation.
The area is home to Ukraine’s most powerful army currently in the field, made up of especially sturdy units who have experience in fighting separatist forces and were entrusted with the front line before the invasion.
The Donbass is likely the most heavily fortified area in Europe; when the war there stalemated both sides build extensive trench networks and fortifications and settled in to watch for an enemy offensive of the sort Russia began in February.
For much of the eight years between 2014 and 2022 the situation at the front lines in Donbass resembled a relatively calm period on the Western Front in World War I.
Now there is nothing calm about the situation, but the resemblance is likely still there. The Ukrainians have held their lines despite threatening Russian advances to their rear.
Donbass battle may decide the war
Russia has been threatening an encirclement of these troops since the invasion began, but the operation has been stalled while forces are redeployed from elsewhere and the fighting in Mariupol is mopped up.
Progress has been necessarily slow but there is only so much the Ukrainians can do to disrupt the new offensive as Russia has been aggressively targeting fuel depots and other infrastructure critical for Ukrainian logistics and movement.
The war could be decided by what happens in the Donbass during the coming offensive. If Russia accomplishes its apparent goal it will neutralize enough Ukrainian troops to either force a capitulation or give its own forces the ability to move freely through southeastern Ukraine.
If the Ukrainians can hold back the Russians and repel their critical offensive then Kiev will be in a much stronger position for negotiations with the Kremlin.
Taking the entirety of the Donbass region is the bare minimum of what Russia intends to do in Ukraine; if they cannot accomplish that in the coming battle then this invasion will have been a clear failure.
The Kremlin is aware of that, so Russian forces will hope to redeem themselves in the eyes of NATO with a comprehensive victory here. Their ability or inability to do that is likely to decide the outcome of the war.
