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Shop NowOne of the most important shifts in opinion within the Republican Party during the Trump years was a resurgence in the idea that conservatives should put some real thought into considering military adventures abroad, rather than diving into conflicts with no exit plan. In the space of a week, much of that wariness has evaporated and Republican politicians are calling for American intervention in the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Interventionists call for war again
Neocons drifted into the shadows somewhat after the rise of Trump; there was general agreement at the time that America needed to take a break and reassess some things before diving into any more foreign wars.
If anything subsequent developments should have only reinforced that consensus. In spite of or because of American military adventures, Libya has effectively ceased to exist, the Taliban is stronger than ever, countless Syrians and Iraqis are dead, and the United States has a severely diminished reputation abroad.
Ukraine proves that we still haven’t learned our lesson. Already members of both parties are speaking openly about a no-fly zone over Ukraine or a regime change in Moscow, as if Vladimir Putin is just another minor despot somewhere in the sandbox.
Certain Republicans are criticizing President Biden for not being “tough enough” on the Kremlin. Any critique of Biden sounds good to most conservatives and his handling of the situation has been abysmal, but more aggression is the last thing this crisis needs.
Knee-jerk contrarianism might be causing millions of Republican voters to agree with neocons who suggest a much more active role for the USA in this conflict, but Biden’s stated refusal to consider a no-fly zone should be prompting a sigh of relief from most sane humans.
Adam Kinzinger and other politicians calling for this kind of thing know full well that they are asking for World War Three. It’s deceptive and irresponsible to dance around this with terms that most voters won’t fully understand or appreciate.
Underestimating Russia is generally a bad idea
Some of the talk about intervening in Ukraine is founded on the idea that Russia is losing the ground war and a little push will be all that’s needed to drive them out of the country. This is not true.
Russian losses and progress overall have likely been worse than expected for Moscow, but deliberate misinformation and propaganda have presented Westerners with massively inflated casualty figures and broken Russian morale.
Russia has only just begun to take the gloves off in recent days in the face of stiffer than expected resistance. One major city has fallen and several more are surrounded.
Most of Ukraine’s best troops are located in the east, where they are at risk of being completely encircled by advancing Russian forces.
At home, Putin’s approval ratings have gone up since the invasion began. This should disprove the fanciful idea that ordinary Russians would rise up en masse to overthrow their government, another popular suggestion in neocon circles.
Our desire to help the Ukrainian people and bring a swift end to the fighting should not be driving us to accept delusional and oversimplified justifications for underestimating Russia. Napoleon and Hitler can both explain why that’s a bad idea.
