Pennsylvania arguably decided both the 2016 and the 2020 elections; it has become a vital swing state for any candidate hoping to make it to the White House and for party leaders hoping to take control of the Senate and House of Representatives in November. Republicans are making huge gains in the state ahead of that election, and those gains are largely coming at the expense of Democrats in their longtime strongholds.
Democrats ditching the party
With Republican Senator Pat Toomey retiring Pennsylvania will be the site of one of the most crucial and hard-fought Senate races in 2022.
Either party could win Toomey’s seat, but the Democrats should be paying close attention to a worrying trend in the state that may indicate a decisive shift in favor of the GOP.
Democrats in Pennsylvania are choosing to formally register as Republicans at four times the rate that Democrats are converting Republicans.
Republicans are making similar gains in other important states, but nowhere is the trend more apparent than in Pennsylvania, where the Democrats have had a longtime advantage in party registration.
They still have an advantage of more than half a million, but they are bleeding voters rapidly and each one lost to the Republicans further narrows the gap.
This is a major gain in momentum for Republicans in a state that might decide control of Congress in 2022, and if the trend continues then it will mean trouble for Democrats in 2024 as well.
Republicans even make gains in Philadelphia
Some of the conversions are no doubt coming from voters who have been choosing Republicans for a while now and are finally making their switch official in 2022.
This will be only part of the trend towards the Republicans, however, and it will still sting for the Democrats. This is the type of voter who chose to support Donald Trump in 2016 because they felt unrepresented by the Democrats.
If these people feel strongly enough to formally change their party registration then they are likely voters that the Democrats have lost forever.
Others have been forced to desert the party due to recent developments; crime, inflation, and the mainstreaming of far-left cultural positions are making these people feel uneasy in their former party.
Republicans are even making gains in Philadelphia, the Democrats’ main stronghold in the state. The city’s increase in violent crime has likely driven many of the 1,315 Democrats who have chosen to become Republicans in 2022.
The GOP may have a real chance to replicate the magic of their Virginia gubernatorial victory by winning multiple statewide races in Pennsylvania this year if they can capitalize on this momentum.
