It is predicted by many individuals online that the two frontrunners in the upcoming 2024 election will be former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The poll was displayed on PredictIt, a large political prediction market, which is often referred to as a “stock market for politics.”
And currently, Trump and DeSantis are practically evenly tied in the market for predicting who will win the 2024 election.
The two shares are sitting at a trading cost of 28 cents, while President Joe Biden lags behind them at 23 cents.
“The Florida governor’s stock is rising. Less than 90 days ago, DeSantis’ 2024 shares were trading around 20-22 cents. Trump has been as high as 30 cents,” Casino.org reports.
Florida Politics noted, “DeSantis and Biden had been roughly comparable in terms of investor buy-in for the last few months, but DeSantis’ ‘Yes’ shares have been priced over Biden’s since May 15, suggesting that a trend may be emerging in this market.”
While Trump may hold a slight edge over DeSantis on bets for him to be the 2024 Republican nominee, that lead is steadily narrowing overtime.
However, the one market that has remained consistent are bets that predict the Republican party will beat out the Democrats.
Bloomberg details how bets on PredictIt are limited to $850 to skirt the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. With that being said, however, the platform allows for multiple variations of the same question to give users more riding on a single outcome.
“The site’s markets are mostly suggested by the traders themselves, some of whom are current or former campaign staffers who might be well positioned to answer questions such as ‘How many tweets will Donald Trump post from Nov. 20 to 27?’ or ‘When will Anthony Scaramucci’s role as White House communications director end?’” the report explained.
PredictIt co-founder John Phillips explained how the prevalence of politicos helps to make sense of why the site often gets bets right. “Prediction markets function as well as they do and are as accurate as they are … because these markets, like any markets, attract people with superior information,” he said on a podcast in 2016. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”
In fact, Timcast previously reported on how DeSantis bested Trump as the top pick for the 2024 election in a Wisconsin Republican Party straw poll.
Over 38% of attendants chose DeSantis while another 32% decided on Trump. No other candidate made it into the double digit numbers on the poll.
WisPolitics shared that 43% of participants want Trump to re-run for office while another 32% were in opposition of another run, meanwhile 22% were unsure.
DeSantis has not ruled out a 2024 election run thus far.
And while Trump has not formally announced his candidacy, he has heavily implied that he intends to run for a third time.