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Shop NowThe Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is reporting enormous Russian losses in men and materials after a week of fighting in the largest conventional war Europe has seen in decades. Casualty figures in wartime are unreliable as a rule, especially when reported by one of the combatants; official Russian reports are very different. It will be difficult to know who (if anyone) is closer to the truth while the fighting is ongoing and the fog of war obscures our view.
Russian losses debated
In the absence of consistent firsthand reporting from nonbiased sources, there is still a great deal of guess work involved in assessing the situation in Ukraine.
Official Ukrainian government sources have understandably not been the most accurate, so we can probably discount their claim that nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has been much less talkative since the invasion began, but Moscow is no less incentivized to invent the casualty figures it wants to see.
Still, the Russian claim on March 2 of approximately 500 killed in action and 1,500 wounded is more reasonable than the excessive Ukrainian estimates.
These are still heavy losses for the Russians and probably more than they were counting on at this stage in the operation. This does not include casualties for the two separatist republics, who are also taking part in the offensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin says that the operation is proceeding on schedule despite the losses in men and vehicles, but there are signs that the rules of engagement for Russian forces have changed in light of stiffer than expected opposition.
Key cities still holding out
Russia now controls approximately 25% of Ukraine, but several major cities have yet to fall despite Russian encirclements and shelling.
Kharkov and Mariupol are key Russian objectives but any attempt to storm them could become a nightmare for both sides, and for civilians who haven’t been able to evacuate.
Each side has blamed the other for not allowing civilian evacuations to take place on a large enough scale to prevent casualties among noncombatants.
Comparisons to the 2003 invasion of Iraq have abounded, but the comparisons will always be imperfect. Russian progress is as fast, if not faster, but even the low estimates show casualties are higher than those suffered by the United States during the initial invasion.
The most notable difference is that the Russian ground invasion was not preceded by a lengthy shock and awe campaign of airstrikes, likely because Putin wanted to win the war as soon as possible after hostilities began.
He is still on track to win a quick victory in Ukraine, but Russian soldiers are clearly paying a steep price for not hitting Ukrainian targets more extensively before the armored columns moved in.
