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Shop NowA new poll from the Trafalgar Group gives Republicans a massive lead over Democrats nationally ahead of the midterm elections. 54.4% of likely voters chose the GOP when asked which party’s candidates they would rather vote for if the election were held now, compared to only 41.9% for the Democrats. Republican candidates are almost universally expected to do well in 2022, but the advantage this poll gives them is even more extreme than most predictions.
Poll shows strong Republican advantage
The Trafalgar Group became famous after 2016 as one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump’s victory, including his unexpected win in Pennsylvania.
Trafalgar predicted another Trump win in 2020. Still, the company is rated as one of the most accurate pollsters by FiveThirtyEight despite the overall results.
This particular poll was paid for by Convention of States Action, a conservative organization dedicated to limiting the power of the federal government.
Even with allowances made for bias, the results are very promising for Republican candidates and seem to indicate a strong preference for the party among independent voters.
It is also worth noting that more than half of the respondents were women. Democrats have had an advantage with female voters in recent history, but it appears to be continuing to slip away.
Hispanic voters also show a continued shift towards the Republican Party, according to the poll. This would be another continuation of a noticeable trend seen in the 2020 election.
Voters deserting Democrats but skeptical of GOP
Ironically, the poll also reveals that Democratic voters are more confident in the GOP’s sincerity than likely Republican voters are.
Respondents who were asked about the likelihood of elected Republicans fulfilling their campaign promises and fighting the Biden agenda were more confident in the party if they planned to vote for Democrats.
This is a vital factor for any Republican candidate to keep in mind. Across the country voters are increasingly likely to support GOP candidates, but that isn’t because they are especially enthusiastic about their own records.
Voters who are contributing to the shift towards Republican candidates are first and foremost against Joe Biden and the Democrats; being for the Republicans is secondary.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Republican candidates, especially if this poll is at all accurate. As long as they can continue to show these voters that they aren’t as bad as the Democrats, this advantage will be enough to win elections.
The real challenge for the GOP will come after November. If Republicans win majorities in Congress, they will need to act quickly to show that they are serious about giving Americans something other than Biden’s vision for the country.
